29 April 2007

too much economic analysis...

I've been reading and listening to too much economic analysis lately. Columns like this one from Peter Schiff at EuroPacific: "What Record High?" pointing out the similarities between our current situation and the conditions that led to hyperinflation in the Wiemar Republic. Here's Mr. Schiff on the 4/17 CNBC Morning Call predicting that the value of the dollar will be cut in half in the next few years.

And, this one from Bernard Ber:
"Too much like 1929"
Ber's article is the most succinct summary I've seen of the Mexican standoff that now exists between the US and China around currency and trade balances.

Meanwhile the RIAA seems to be driving US trade policy as US trade representatives file actions against China with the WTO in Geneva. The RIAA has problems with a failing business model even in markets that protect intellectual property rights. Hope somebody besides RIAA lobbyists are paying attention to the implications of this attempt to "bar China from the WTO on copyright grounds"...

According to the "All the World's a Bubble" even the guy who handles Dick Cheney's money, Jeremy Grantham, only says to stay in the market because "Most bubbles, he notes, go through a short but dramatic "exponential phase" just before they burst." Interestingly enough one of the few investments he thinks will beat inflation if held over the next 7 years is managed timber. Though it might be good if your timber was denominated in something other than dollars. Northcoast take note.

And finally, here's a School House Rock style view of the roaring twenties, something without all the tedious acronyms:

Thanks to Tanta at Calculated Risk for the link...

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